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Political spin doctors have been busy since the three
federal by-elections in Quebec. On September 17 the Conservative
Party and the New Democratic Party won one seat each, and the
pro-independence Bloc Quebecois held on to Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot.
The federal Liberal Party, under new leader Stephane
Dion, was the biggest losers, polling less than 10 per cent of the votes
cast in two of the three ridings. Though this result may still be a
hang-over from the infamous Sponsorship Scandal, the knives are already
out for Dion.
The NDP victory in Outremont, a constituency held by
the Liberals in every election since 1935, is just the second seat ever
won in Quebec by the labour-based English-Canadian party. But the
seat was captured largely due to its star candidate, Thomas Mulcair, a
popular former provincial Liberal cabinet minister.
The biggest winners appeared to be Stephen Harper’s
federal Conservatives who seized Roberval riding from the BQ, and came a
close second in Saint H-B. Their exceptional performance seems to
parallel the rise of the ‘autonomist’ but socially conservative
provincial party L’Action Democratique du Quebec.
This shift in the terrain has led some political
pundits to proclaim the terminal decline of the Quebec sovereignty
movement.
The extent to which that view is a major exaggeration
is underscored by actual Conservative policies. Stephen Harper
appealed directly to Quebec nationalists by getting the federal
Parliament in Ottawa to pass a resolution last November which (albeit
only symbolically) recognized that the “Quebecois form a nation”.
And now Harper promises to curtail federal spending in areas of
provincial jurisdiction. It is a policy that Harper lifted directly
from the Bloc’s book (although it does correspond to his aim, which is to
reduce social spending, period).
Harper’s Achilles Heel, however, is the Canadian
military intervention in Afghanistan, which is most strongly opposed in
Quebec. His tactic to circumnavigate that problem is to pledge to
end the combat mission in February 2009 unless there is a parliamentary
“consensus” to continue it.
The NDP campaign was certainly bolstered by leader
Jack Layton’s call to withdraw troops from Afghanistan now, as well as by
the party’s position on the environment and labour. But the NDP’s
rigid federalism, its resistence to Quebec-self-government, remains a
major obstacle to attracting the support of francophone workers in Quebec
– as does the NDP’s wavering position on the Clarity Act, an
anti-democratic federal law that would negate a future majority vote for
independence in Quebec.
Francoise David and Amir Khadir, co-leaders of Quebec
Solidaire, the new leftist provincial party, summed up the situation well
in a message to Layton and Mulcair: “Despite important differences between
Quebec Solidaire and the NDP on the Quebec national question, we are
gladdened by this result and congratulate Messrs. Mulcair and Layton and
the hundreds of NDP militants whose determination and fighting spirit
permitted this spectacular gain.”
“For Quebec Solidaire these hopes (of the growing
number of citizens who vote for a just, ecological and egalitarian
society) are permitted and tangible. We will forge our own path,
because in Quebec, we need an alternative to the traditional parties.
The result yesterday in Outremont gives us reason to affirm that another
Quebec is truly possible.”
In any case, all political speculation will be put to
the test in the next federal election, which could be as soon as this
Fall if the Throne Speech of the minority Conservative government is
defeated in a Parliamentary vote in October.
Presently, the party standings are: Conservatives 126;
Liberals 96, Bloc Quebecois 49; New Democrats 30; Independents 3; Vacant
4.
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