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Despite
all the hype about the effectiveness of "the surge," that is,
the deployment of additional U.S. troops in Iraq, the major U.S.
success has been the achievement of an alliance with local Sunni gangs
against al-Qaida and other insurgents. However, this relationship has
been unstable from the beginning because of a number of basic problems.
These
Sunni gangs include many former guerrilla fighters against the U.S.
occupation, as well as former members of Saddam Hussein's forces. They
are not trusted by the mainly Shiite U.S. client government and its
security forces.
The
U.S. commanders themselves fear that these bands are untrustworthy
because of shifting loyalties, as well as organized infiltration by al-Qaida and other
insurgents.
Also,
naturally, since these groups have been formed around local strongmen,
many of whom are more or less bandits, these militias are ridden with
violent factionalism and personal rivalries. Recently, for all these
reasons, the relations of the U.S. military with these groups have been
evidently becoming more strained.
An
article in the Feb. 14 Christian Science Monitor noted: "Hundreds
of Sahwa [Awakening Council] militiamen protested Monday to demand that
the provincial police chief, a Shiite, be fired for sanctioning alleged
crimes against Sunnis within the province.
The
protesters threatened to quit their jobs as neighborhood guards, paid
mainly by the US. "Iraq's
Shiite-led government has also delayed drafting Sahwa members into the
police and Army. Only 10 percent of the 77,000 Sahwa members have been
accepted for training for police and Army jobs. Of those, 490 have
completed training, according to a US-led coalition spokesman, Rear
Adm. Greg Smith." For the members of Sahwa, acceptance into the
regular Iraqi security forces is essential for status and economic security.
An
article in the Feb. 28 Washington Post likewise reported: "Since
Feb. 8, thousands of fighters in restive Diyala province have left
their posts in order to pressure the government and its American
backers to replace the province's Shiite police chief. On Wednesday,
their leaders warned that they would disband completely if their
demands were not met. In Babil province, south of Baghdad, fighters
have refused to man their checkpoints after U.S. soldiers killed
several comrades in mid-February in circumstances that remain in
dispute."
The
article noted: "Inadvertent U.S. killings of Awakening
fighters—five such incidents have occurred in the past three weeks—are
adding to the frustrations. In the southern town of Jurf al-Sakr, U.S.
soldiers killed three fighters Feb. 15. U.S. commanders said that the
men had fired upon the soldiers first and that the troops acted in
self-defense.
"Within
hours, more than 1000 fighters walked away from their posts. Sabah
al-Janabi, who heads the Awakening in the area, publicly criticized the
U.S. military, alleging it had killed 19 of his men in the past 45
days, which U.S. commanders deny."
U.S.
commanders say their soldiers have to shoot first and ask questions
afterward and let the chips fall where they may, although they are
risking losing vital ones: "The incidents illustrate a vexing
problem for the American military: The Awakening movement has grown so
fast that it has become difficult for U.S. commanders to monitor the
fighters and their loyalties
"'It's
clear there are extremist groups that have penetrated the Concerned
Local Citizens, that there may be in fact al-Qaeda amongst the
Concerned Local Citizens," said Rear Adm. Gregory J. Smith, a
senior military spokesman."
The
Awakening Councils thus are being caught in a crossfire, since they are
also facing increasingly deadly reprisals from al-Qaida. In January,
insurgent attacks on them have grown from 29 in the previous month to
100. And some of these attacks have been deadly. Furthermore, the
Awakening Council leaders who face these risks have reason to feel
slighted both by the Iraqi government and the American military.
According
to the Washington Post article, "Rafah Kassim, 37, an Awakening
leader in the oil-producing city of Baiji, lost two fighters in mid-February
when gunmen ambushed their car. Speaking at their funeral, Kassim said
he did not expect the Shiite-led Iraqi government, which fears the
Awakening movement could one day turn against it, to embrace his
fighters.
“He
had applied six times to join the Iraqi army and police, he said, but
was never accepted. He said he expected his new ally, the U.S.
military, to back his struggle. Instead, he said, U.S. commanders have
limited his force to 40 fighters when he needs at least 100 to protect
his area of 2.7 square miles.
"'They
should make me stronger. They should not weaken me,' said Kassim, a
former commander in the Islamic Army, an insurgent group. ‘We need
weapons. We need vehicles. We do not even have gas for the few cars we
have. When we joined, the Americans promised to provide all
necessities. Now we know those were only words.'
"In
the past two months, he said, 20 of his fighters have quit. Many felt
their monthly salary was no longer worth the risk of fighting al-Qaeda
in Iraq. His men also have not received their salaries in two months,
he said. 'We'll all be patient for another two months. If nothing
changes, then we'll suspend and quit,' Kassim said. 'Then we'll go back
to fighting the Americans.'"
Such
threats can be a form of attempted blackmail, to which the U.S.
dependence on the Sunni gangs makes them vulnerable. But it probably
also reflects doubts the military have about these groups and their
consequent fears that they risk equipping future enemies.
In
any case, it is evident that the gains of the U.S. against al-Qaida and
other insurgents, based on an alliance with these groups, are very
precarious. And a breakup of this constellation could lead to a worse
situation for the U.S. military in the Sunni areas than the one it
faced before "the surge" and the enlisting of these bands.
At
the same time that the U.S. alliance with the Awakening groups is
showing signs of strain, the U.S. relationship with its only firm ally
in Iraq has been severely shaken by U.S. complicity with a large-scale
Turkish army search-and-destroy operation in the Kurdish area in
northern Iraq. The Turkish forces, reporting numbering about 10,000
soldiers, stayed in Iraq for about a week, and the Turkish government
has announced that it will carry out such operations whenever it wants
without regard to any pressure from its allies, thereby thumbing its
nose at the U.S.
The
Turkish assault was allegedly aimed against bases of the Kurdish
nationalist guerrillas of the PKK, who have been waging war against the
Turkish state. In fact, since the inception of the modern Turkish
state, Turkish nationalists have seen the liquidation of their Kurdish
minority as essential for the achievement of their objectives. Until
recently, it was even against the law to speak Kurdish in public,
although the Turkish authorities maintained that there was no such
thing as the Kurdish language.
The refusal of successive Turkish
governments to grant even the most minimal national rights to their
Kurdish population has provoked repeated Kurdish uprisings, of which
the struggle of the PKK is only the latest. The result of this attitude
of the Turkish state makes it hated among all Kurds, who have major
communities in Iraq and Iran, as well as Turkey.
The
Kurds in Iraq also have reason to think that the Turkish nationalists
will not tolerate the development of Kurdish self-government across
their border with northern Iraq.
Furthermore, the Turkish state has historic claims to the oil-rich
territories of northern Iraq, inhabited mainly by Kurds, which Turkey
lost in World War I.
Le
Monde reported Feb. 27: "Retired general Edip Baser, former
commander of the infantry and later coordinator of the fight against
the PKK, said: 'My feeling is that the Turkish army should stay. The
objective is to occupy a territory from which we can have total control
of the border. We have to stay in northern Iraq until the PKK is
totally eliminated. Not just in Iraq, but also in Europe, where its
financial reserves are located.’
“Other
former generals have not hesitated on TV to evoke Mosul and Kirkuk as
the real targets of the operations. 'I don't think it will go so far,'
said Mehmet Dulger, former minister of foreign affairs, but Mosul and
Kirkuk, which Great Britain took after World War I, have remained two
wounds in my heart.'"
The
Kurdish leaders, facing attempts to destroy their people from Saddam
Hussein, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the Turkish state have hoped
to gain protection from the United States. That explains their alliance
with the U.S. occupation in Iraq and also apparently their acceptance
of support from U.S. covert operations in Iran.
But
U.S. imperialism has no long-term interest in defending the national
rights of oppressed peoples.
Its natural allies are oppressors. It has manipulated the
Kurdish leaders but always betrayed them. It is unlikely that the
politically conscious Kurdish nationalists have forgotten that.
Moreover,
the Kurdish people living in northern Iraq have shown in a number of
ways that their real aspiration is independence and the logical
implication of that is a state for all Kurds. However, the United
States' most important allies in the Middle East are Israel and Turkey,
states that are both based on forcibly stamping out the nationalist
aspirations of oppressed peoples.
The
aggression of the Turkish state in northern Iraq obviously threatens
the U.S. alliance with the Kurds in Iraq, and thus threatens to
undermine its domination of the country as a whole. Yet the U.S. rulers
have no choice but to defend the Turkish operations, even if with some
reservations and complaints.
Since
the U.S. has proven unable to crush the opposition to its domination of
Iraq militarily, it has come increasingly to depend on manipulation to maintain
its position. But that has led it to try to juggle contradictory
alliances, and it seems that is beginning to risk dropping some major
pieces. The result could be an escalation of the conflicts in the
region with a disastrous rebound against the United States.
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