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Reactionary provincial governments in Bolivia have succeeded in holding
a series of illegal referenda to provide the justification for de facto
separation from the Bolivian central government led by the reformist
politician Evo Morales.
The first referendum was held on May 4 in the province (prefecture) of
Santa Cruz, the tightest stronghold of the right, a province dominated
by 100 landowning families and the historic breeding ground of Bolivian
fascism. Two subsequent referenda have been held in Pando and Beni, and
another is scheduled for Tarija on June 22. Some 90 percent of the
country's known natural gas reserves are in the latter province.
Together these four provinces form a semicircle known as the Media Luna
(Half Moon). They are mostly lowland areas with a population mainly of
European origin. Bolivia's new natural resources—oil, natural gas,
iron, and manganese—are concentrated in this area.
The highlands have a mainly indigenous population and are the site of
the older natural resources, silver and tin, which are now declining.
The Morales government's base is mainly in the highlands, the provinces
of Oruro, Potosi, and La Paz. The province of Cuquisaca, where the
country's second capital, Sucre, is located, is a border area, as is
Cochabamba.
In the referendum of Santa Cruz, 85 percent of those voting voted for
autonomy, but roughly 40 percent did not vote. The percentages were
similar in Pando and Beni, where referenda were held on June 1.
Both the right and Morales claimed victory, although Morales' claims
were largely hollow. The Bolivian president and his supporters argued
that the non-voters and "no" voters were the majority. But
there is no way to be sure why people did not vote. It is likely that
much of the non-voting represented rejection of the referendum.
Indeed, the fact that the opposition was split between abstention and
non-voting indicated the failure of the Morales government to offer
leadership. If the government had organized a boycott, it might have
been able to defeat the initiative, since the vote would have no
validity according to Bolivian law if it were less than 50 percent of
the electoral register.
Moreover, Morales and the organizations supporting him made little
attempt to mobilize protests against the vote, although there were some
road blockages and attacks on polling stations in Pando.
The provinces of Cuquisaca and Cochabamba have mixed populations. There
is also a mass opposition to the right. But in the case of Cochabamba,
where the governor is a right-winger, Morales prevented a mass upsurge
from removing him. And in Cuquisaca, where whites dominate in the city
of Sucre, indigeneous peasant demonstrators were terrorized and
humiliated on May 24 by a racist mob. They were forced to march half-naked
to the central square, kneel and kiss the provincial flag, and burn
their posters. The Morales government made no response.
In fact, Morales' response to the autonomy referenda has been only to
call for a meeting of provincial governors to try to negotiate a new
national accord, and to offer a national referendum on his presidency
for August. Even if he wins a majority in the August vote, it is not
going to have any impact on the provinces dominated by the right wing.
From the beginning of his government, Morales has sought to conciliate
the right-wing oligarchs in the Media Luna. Now the reaction has him
clearly on the ropes.
Without a revolutionary mass mobilization he has no way to impose any
changes on the Media Luna. The local reactionaries will remain in
control of the country's main natural resources and consolidate a state
within a state and will operate racist exclusion against the country's
indigenous majority. The central government will be crippled and
impotent.
The fate of the Morales regime seems grim. But there are powerful
revolutionary traditions in Bolivia, where three governments have been
ousted by mass upsurges in recent years and the last one almost led to
an insurrection on the scale of the 1952 revolution. Very soon, it
should become evident where new mobilizations and organizations will
emerge to take up the struggle against the right-wing subversion that
Morales has abandoned.
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