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A
poll of Iraqi public opinion done by a group associated with the
University of Maryland indicates that opposition to the U.S.-led
occupation is now overwhelming. The results, published in a Reuters dispatch
of Sept. 29, indicate that 61 percent of Iraqis support the resistance’s
armed attacks on U.S. forces, up from 47 percent in January.
Support
for such attacks was highest among Sunnis, 92 percent, but the poll
showed that for the first time a substantial minority of Shiites, 61
percent, supports armed resistance to the occupation forces. Some 78
percent of Iraqis, according to this study, think that the U.S. presence
causes more violence than it prevents, including 97 percent of Sunnis and
82 percent of Shiites.
Support
for the occupation remains high among the Kurds, about 20 percent of the
population, who see the U.S as rescuing them from Saddam Hussein’s
genocide. But even there, a substantial and growing minority is now
hostile to the occupation.
Against
this background, U.S. casualties have been growing. Some 74 U.S. military
personnel were killed over the month of September, and the number of
victims of civil conflict among Iraqis has escalated. The Los Angeles Times
reported Oct. 4 that in July and August in Baghdad alone 5000 Iraqis died
in sectarian killings and in clashes with the various security forces.
The
Los Angeles Times article offered various explanations for the higher
U.S. losses. First of all, they noted the deployment of twice as many
U.S. troops in Baghdad, where a third of the losses took place. They also
cited growing attacks from Shiite groups and a shift in policy by the
Islamist wing of the resistance to concentrating on attacks on occupation
troops rather than elements of the Iraqi population they view as enemies.
But
it is clear is that occupied Iraq is a killing field that is continually
becoming more deadly. A U.S. government report, parts of which were
released in September, indicates that Iraq has become a recruiting crowd
for Islamist fighters from all over the world.
The
British Economist, one of the most serious and objective organs of
capitalism, reported Sept. 28: “The war in Iraq has ‘made the overall
terrorism problem worse. Many Islamist extremists consider it to be the
first front of a total war against Islam. It has galvanised jihadists,
becoming their ‘cause celebre,’ and it has contributed directly to
increasing recruitment of violent Islamist terrorists. The terrorist threat
is now more acute than it was before the September 11th attacks on the
United States.’
“These
blunt conclusions, leaked last week to the New York Times and the
Washington Post, are part of a classified National Intelligence Estimate
(NIE) on global terrorism trends. Such estimates are the consensus
opinion of 16 government agencies, including the CIA, FBI, State
Department and all four branches of the armed forces.
“They
are hard to dismiss by any but the willfully dim-sighted. ‘Stating the
obvious,’ one leaker said. But it has never been obvious to the Bush
administration.”
The
Economist failed to note that stonewalling is perhaps the most
characteristic feature of the Bush administration. The political
leadership of declining American capitalism is unable to face up to basic
facts that are obvious to any serious observer and tries to shout them
down by appeals to backward prejudices and superstitions of all sorts.
The
military instrument of U.S. capitalism is also showing cracks that its
political leadership is trying to cover up. A dispatch by Reuters writer
Will Dunham noted (as translated from a French version): “Soldiers under
pressure, inadequate equipment, the military engagement in Iraq and
Afghanistan is weighing heavily on the American army, which is showing
growing signs of tensions.
“The
army has supplied the bulk of the troops deployed for three and a half
years in Iraq. Of the total of 142,000 soldiers currently stationed in
Iraq, 100,000 come from the army. In Afghanistan, it is 16,000 out of
21,000. Many soldiers are on their third or fourth tour of duty, and the
Pentagon has just announced that a brigade deployed in the Iraqi Anbar
province will stay longer than expected.
“This
is the second time in two months that the Defense Department has delayed
the return of the ‘boys,’ with all the implications that has for the
morale of the troops and their families. In the general staff, voices are
being raised stressing that the budgetary resources may not be sufficient
to maintain the tanks, armored vehicles, and other equipment being
subjected to a harsh test in Iraq.”
The
Iraq war has been a bonanza for big U.S. corporations like Halliburton
but a disaster for the American population who have to pay for it. Thus,
the public opinion polls show a constantly growing level of rejection for
the war and rejection of the Bush administration’s arguments for it.
In
the run-up to the November elections, the Bush administration has been
campaigning hard to try to regain support for the war but apparently is
unable to reverse the trend. Thus, in mid-June, the CNN poll showed a
slight dip in the disapproval rate—from 62 percent in May to 54
percent—but at the beginning of August it went up again to 62 percent,
and at the beginning of October it rose to 66 percent (two thirds).
In
all, the Iraqi war seems to be becoming the breaking point for the
present capitalist order in the United States, economically and
politically as well as militarily. The immediate effect of this on the
social and political scene in the U.S. remains to be seen, but it could
be considerable.
Moreover,
this defeat of U.S. imperialism in Iraq comes in the face of a divided
resistance, some of whose groups carry out many senseless,
counterproductive atrocities against civilians. If the resistance were to
achieve an effective leadership, the U.S. occupation could face a
disastrous defeat.
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