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The clashes at a Fatah rally in Gaza on Nov.
12 may have been a turning point in the conflict between Fatah and
Hamas, for better or worse. They will either lead to a deepening of civil
war, or lead the protagonists to step back from the brink.
Moreover, in this situation of tragic division in the Palestinian
movement, the Israeli army command has announced that it is planning a
large scale invasion and long term occupation of the Gaza strip.
"Last month, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that the IDF is
'getting closer to a large-scale operation in Gaza, and we're likely to
stay there for a long time,'” the Israeli daily Haaretz reported on
Dec. 8.
The gathering of a quarter of a million Fatah supporters in a territory
with a total population of a million and a half showed that the older
Palestinian organization retains mass support in the territory despite
its military defeat at the hands of Hamas, widespread accusations of
corruption, and internal disorganization and demoralization.
It is also an indication that Hamas's attempt to impose what amounts to
a military dictatorship on Gaza is beginning to erode its support.
Also, Hamas's radical rhetoric has helped Israel to continually tighten
a siege on the territory that is making life unbearable for the
population of Gaza.
The attack of the Hamas security guards on the demonstration, killing
six Fatah supporters, created an enormous shock. It enabled the Fatah
president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmud Abbas, to call for the
first time for the overthrow of the Hamas government in Gaza. There
were some indications that the Hamas political leadership wanted to
defuse the confrontation. But the political leaders seem to have little
influence over the militants.
The clashes were followed by a sweeping crackdown against Fatah in
Gaza. The predominance of eyewitness accounts cited in the
international press blame the Hamas security guards for the outbreak.
But there are also some reports of provocations from Fatah activists—in
particular, shouts denouncing Hamas as Shiite because it gets support
from Shiite Iran. Fatah in Gaza seems to have widely adopted this
reactionary and provocative theme.
The Israeli press has been citing polls showing declining support for
Hamas and corresponding rises for Fatah. Of course, the rising support
for Fatah may be due in part to hopes that Mahmud Abbas can achieve
some sort of compromise with Israel that can make the lives of the
Palestinians easier.
It was similar hopes that led to the Olso Accords in 1992, the major
Palestinian-Israeli accord to date. But these hopes were totally
deceived by Israeli actions. That is one of the sources of the rise of
Hamas. And, although Abbas' hopes for concessions from the Israelis are
more modest after this experience, it remains to be seen if they will
bear any fruit.
The Israelis pose as a condition for concessions that Abbas suppress
the Palestinian guerrillas. He has tried to do this to some extent in
the past and failed. He was evidently convinced that he did not have
the muscle or the political support to do it. But the civil war between
Fatah and Hamas is now making it easier for him to attack the
militants, particularly in Nablus, a Hamas stronghold on the West Bank.
Hamas' response to this has been to issue dire warnings to Abbas not to
give away any of the rights of the Palestinian people. The Islamic
organization is trying to gain support against its rival by claiming to
be a more intransigent defender of the Palestinians against the Zionist
state.
But its accusations that Fatah leaders are traitors and sell-outs
obstruct the attempts of the Hamas leadership to moderate the conflict
between the two movements. Fatah's attempts to use sectarian prejudices
against Hamas by calling it Shiite are a
similar barrier.
Some liberals in the Israeli press have argued that Iranian support for
Hamas is a good thing in that it has enabled them to build up a
disciplined army capable of controlling Gaza, and therefore a
government with which Israel could negotiate. The problem in this is
that in order to negotiate with any Palestinian representatives, Israel
is going to have to offer some real concessions, and so far there is no
assurance that it will do that. Instead, the Israeli defense minister's
statement quoted above indicates that the Zionist government is
contemplating a holocaust in the ruined enclave.
In the meantime, Hamas's military power has led it to try to impose its
military as the only armed force in Gaza. And this has led to armed
clashes with Islamic Jihad, a smaller but very active military
organization. On Nov. 7, an Islamic Jihad member was killed in a
shootout at a funeral for an Islamic Jihad member previously killed by
Hamas.
It is to be hoped that the outrage among Palestinians over Palestinians
killing Palestinians and the threat of a major Israeli onslaught on
Gaza will lead to new political debate and organization. That has to be
based on organizing the Palestinian people as a whole to demand their
rights and not fighting over control of mini-governments and
fragmentary territories.
The rise of Hamas shows that the Palestinian people are not ready to
surrender any part of historic Palestine. They want their country back.
But in order to achieve that they need a credible perspective—that is,
a democratic secular Palestine in which all the inhabitants of the
country can live together on basis of equality.
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