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The Truth About Global Warming
by Christine
Frank / July 2005 issue of Socialist Action newspaper
In the summer of 1988, the hottest on record up to that point, James
Hansen of NASA's Goddard Space Institute reported to Congress that he was
99 percent
certain that global warming, due to the human activity of burning
fossil fuels, was underway. The story made front-page headlines.
That was 17 years ago, but where are the headlines now that we have
experienced three of the hottest years on record already in this century?
Since George W. Bush assumed office, the corporate media had been ignoring
the issue until it was disclosed recently that his administration
has been systematically suppressing information in EPA reports about the
impact of
warming.
Philip Cooney, Chief of Staff for the White House Counsel on
Environmental Quality (CEQ) stepped down from his post after The New York
Times finally broke a story that has been widely known in environmental circles
for some time now. It was the job of Cooney, a former lobbyist for the
American Petroleum Institute (API), and James Connaughton, Chair of the CEQ
and a former corporate attorney, to edit out the global-warming sections of
government reports and remove information from websites to keep the American
people ignorant of how climate change is progressing.
This was done in the name of "sound science" at the behest
of ExxonMobil and right-wing think tanks such as the Competitive Enterprise
Institute, who want business to proceed as usual with more fossil fuels being
burned, more C02 belched into the atmosphere and more superprofits being
made by the "Carbon Barons" of the energy and auto industries.
It is no surprise that Cooney has since redocked with the mother
ship and returned to the API. While the governments of the European Union
and Japan are actually taking some measures to reduce their carbon emissions
by building more wind farms and solar parks, the Bush administration
steadfastly refuses to do anything, claiming more study is needed to prove
that global warming is indeed a scientific fact. But when the facts are
presented, it immediately takes measures to conceal them.
In addition, it has employed a host of "greenhouse skeptics,"
who are nothing but paid mouthpieces for the energy giants, to try to
discredit the science and
cast doubt upon it. The United States, with less than 5 percent of
the world's population, is responsible for one-fourth of the globe's carbon
emissions. The
U.S. leads the world in consuming fossil fuels and in polluting the
air.
One would think our government would assume some responsibility and
take action, yet last year we increased our consumption of oil to 20.5
million
barrels a day, contributing to the 3.4 percent surge in global
fossil-fuel use. We also added 18 million new gas-guzzling SUVs to our
roadways, at an increase
of nearly 6 percent over 2003. Thus, we continue to race toward our
doom, dragging the rest of the world along with us.
Carbon dioxide: a
weapon of mass destruction
So what are the facts about global warming and climate change that
Bush is so reluctant for us to know about?
It is Earth's atmosphere that keeps the planet warm enough to
support life. Trace gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (NH4),
in their role as infrared radiation absorbers, are vital in maintaining Earth's
heat balance. They have also played an
important role in affecting climate change in the planet's geologic
past.
From ice cores, tree rings, and sediment records, we know that when
the concentrations of these essential gases rise, the mean global surface
temperature rises and when they fall, so does the temperature. This was
true throughout the advance and recession of the great ice sheets
that covered vast areas of the planet as recently as 12,000 years ago.
Since the Industrial Revolution, when we began using ever-increasing
quantities of coal and oil to fuel the engines of the burgeoning capitalist
economy, we have been releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
from sources deep underground where it has been stored for millions
of years.
Carbon dioxide is rapidly becoming the most deadly weapon of mass
destruction as we continue to upset the natural carbon cycle. CO2
concentrations are currently at 377.4 parts per million (molecules) by
volume
compared to 280 ppmv in the pre-industrial era. This may not seem
like much, which is why they are called trace gases, but a little goes a
long way. Their
levels are still rising at exponential rates.
Other anthropogenically produced greenhouse gases that absorb and
trap heat include water vapor, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and
tropospheric ozone. The bulk of
them (57%) come from burning coal, natural gas and oil, and industry in
general, but there are other human activities that contribute—such as
forest destruction (8%), agriculture (9%), poor waste management (5%),
cement manufacturing (1%), CFC release (11.5%), and miscellaneous sources
(8.5%). All of these add to the atmospheric mix that is causing
global warming.
The global mean surface temperature rose 0.6°C (1.1°F) over the 20th
century, but the rate of change since 1976 has been triple that, with the
10 warmest years on record having occurred since 1990. The planet's average
temperature registered at 14.48°C (58°F) in 2003.
Earth's physiology consists of four matrixes—the soil, atmosphere,
oceans, and biota or life. Each of these features interacts in a complex
set of nutrient
cycles, and they also create conditions that give rise to our
climate and daily weather patterns. The soil, oceans, and vegetation serve
as carbon sinks, which—as they exchange this basic element of life through photosynthesis
and respiration—each absorb, release, and store a certain quantity in
precise proportions. This has occurred
in a steady-state process for thousands of years until human beings began
to intervene through industrialization.
With the oceans absorbing more CO2 than normal, the pH of seawater
is being altered, becoming more acidic with the addition of greater
quantities of dilute carbonic acid to its chemistry. This is having a negative
effect on all marine life.
The world's tropical rain forests also help regulate the planet's
carbon flow. They absorb millions of tons through the photosynthetic
process. Their carbon is released to the atmosphere when the roots of
felled trees rot in the ground and when paper or wood products made from
them decompose in landfills.
The massive burning of the globe's forests for agriculture is
destroying an important carbon sink and turning it into a carbon source,
adding even more CO2 to the atmosphere as the timber combusts. Trees matter.
They also play an important role in the planet's hydrological cycle. Less
vegetation means
less rainfall, since plants transpire moisture into the air, which
later falls as precipitation.
Proof of global warming is found in direct measurements of soil and
surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and by observing
phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating
and melting ice masses, and changes in the physical and biological systems.
Thinning sea ice in
the Arctic
Global warming is most pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere, and
its effect is most acutely observed in the Arctic Circle, where it is
proceeding at almost
twice the average rate of elsewhere. The polar regions are the
globe's air-conditioning system. As they go, so goes the rest of the
planet.
In the Arctic Ocean, summer sea-ice cover has thinned by 42 percent
and shrunk in area by 6 percent. Together,
this thinning and shrinkage have reduced it by nearly half, threatening
habitats for polar bear, caribou, seabirds, and other species. Sea levels
have risen by 10-20 centimeters.
A decline in protective ice cover along shorelines has led to
serious coastal erosion in the winter storm months, forcing the relocation
of entire Arctic
villages. With rising temperatures, plant and animal species are
shifting further northward. The Inupiat are now seeing robins, for which
they have no word in
their lexicon.
As the region loses its reflective snow and ice cover, darker land
and water area is being exposed and is absorbing more of the sun's heat,
thereby contributing to further planetary warming.
Another alarming fact is that thawing tundra is releasing more carbon
dioxide and methane from its soil and vegetation, enhancing the greenhouse
effect
even more. These are two powerful reciprocal actions at work in
climate change that illustrate how we have set phenomena into motion that
are interdependently feeding upon each other and steadily building momentum.
Where it will stop no one can predict.
Earth's natural systems may take centuries, even a millennium, to
reach a new state of equilibrium and
stabilize. In the meantime, what will happen to humanity and other
life forms on the planet? Earth is facing certain ecological collapse if we
do not take
action now.
Other ice masses on the planet are being affected as well as those
in the Arctic Circle. Antarctica has experienced the dramatic break up of
the Prince Gustav and Larsen A & B Ice Shelves. The world is skating on
some very thin ice indeed.
As observed by satellite, the seasonal melt extent of the Greenland
Ice Sheet is steadily growing on an annual basis. Its net loss is some 51
billion cubic
meters of water per year, an amount equal to the annual flow of the Nile.
If that ice sheet were to melt entirely, it would raise sea level by 23
feet. This is another feedback loop
that can reinforce existing trends. Once certain thresholds are crossed, change
can come rapidly and unpredictably.
Mountain glaciers:
“reservoirs in the sky”
Likewise, mountain glaciers are shrinking not only in the Arctic
region but in all the major mountain ranges of the world—the Rockies,
Andes, Alps, and Himalayas. This is
adversely affecting the water supplies of communities dependent on glacial
run-off.
Only a 1º or 2°C rise in temperature in mountainous regions can
greatly increase the share of precipitation falling as rain while
decreasing the
share coming down as snow. The result is more flooding during the
rainy season, a shrinking snow/ice mass and less snowmelt to feed rivers
during the dry season.
These "reservoirs in the sky," where nature stores fresh
water for use in the summer as the snow melts, are shrinking and could
disappear altogether. This is already affecting water supplies in the
Andes.
The Himalayas provide runoff to the Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze, and
Yellow rivers—affecting the hydrology of the Indian subcontinent, China,
and
Southeast Asia. Imagine what would happen if that source were to dry
up!
The warming of ocean waters has affected our El Niño cycles, making
them more intense and longer in duration, occurring with greater frequency.
Since the mid-1970s, the tropical Pacific's sea surface temperature
has risen by several tenths of a degree Fahrenheit. Consequently, the
recharge phase of
the Southern Oscillation has sped up and the discharge phase has
become less efficient, creating a series of "super" Los Niños, in
which the waters are even warmer than normal. The El Niño of 1997-98 became
known as "the climate event of the century," with $33 billion in
damages and 23,000 deaths worldwide.
Global warming is affecting the deep ocean currents that bring
warmth to Europe and give the continent its temperate climate.
The Gulf Stream brings warm water from the tropics as part of a
worldwide network of currents known as the Ocean Conveyor. The WQ system
depends on natural, cold-water pumps around Greenland that draw warm water
northward and send cold water back southward.
These pumps are powered by a high saline concentration near the
water's surface. Melting ice, which is saltless, is currently weakening the
pump. If this
freshening continues, it could slow the current down to the point
where it halts altogether, resulting in a sudden deep freeze in Northern
Europe.
Warming seawater is also affecting marine life. The greatest
evidence for this is in the bleaching of the vast coral reefs—the rain
forests of the ocean. A
water temperature of 32°C becomes fatal, causing polyp colonies to
commit suicide by expelling the algae that symbiotically nourish them with
carbon compounds through photosynthesis. It is the algae that give the corals
their colors. When they are gone, the reefs turn bone white.
Coral mortality has reached 90 percent in some regions due to heat
stress and other detrimental effects. Because of warming, there is also a
resurgence of disease among marine flora and fauna, such as toxic algae
blooms and viral outbreaks.
Just as animals and plants are changing their range on land in
response to warming, marine flora and fauna are also shifting. This is
affecting the entire
aquatic food chain. Record temperatures are killing off the plankton
on which all life depends in the North Sea, depleting fish stocks and sea
bird populations. Scientists say the ecology of the region is essentially
in a state of breakdown.
Climate change causes sea levels to rise by affecting both the
density and the amount of water in the oceans. Water expands as it warms,
and less-dense
water takes up more space than cold does. Without wind, rain or any
warning, small islands in the Pacific have already experienced tidal surges
that have inundated homes along their shorelines as a result of the thermal
swelling of seawater.
Combined with the addition of melting glaciers and ice caps, the
ocean's volume is steadily increasing.
Global average sea level rose almost three millimeters per year
during the 1990s, at a rate of 10-20 times faster than the estimated rate
over the past few millennia.
The island nations most likely to be completely flooded in future
are the Marshalls, the Maldives, and Tuvalu. On the continents, low-lying
Bangladesh and the Netherlands are most vulnerable. It should be kept in
mind that the poorest countries will suffer the most as climate change
escalates.
The Earth's crust is also heating up. For over 40 years, climatologist
Donald Baker of the University of Minnesota has been recording soil
temperatures to the depth of 42 feet below the surface and discovered that sub-surface
soil temperatures have increased more than 3 degrees, a much faster rate
than is reasonable to expect in a stable climate.
Increased health
problems
World health officials are observing a rise in warming-induced
diseases such as cholera, Rift Valley fever, dengue, West Nile virus,
malaria, and yellow
fever—especially those with insect vectors.
Warming accelerates the breeding and biting rates of insects and the
maturation of the pathogens they carry. It also expands their geographical
range, allowing them to thrive longer at higher altitudes and latitudes.
For example, the West Nile encephalitis virus rapidly expanded into North
America from Africa via mosquitoes and the migratory birds they infect, spreading
into 43 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces in three short years.
Other health problems that are on the rise are skin cancers,
cataracts, and immune-system disorders due to increased exposure to ultraviolet
radiation. Since the discovery of the hole in the ozone layer over the Antarctic,
there has been a 20 percent reduction in stratospheric ozone worldwide. The
ozone hole covers a 26 million-square-kilometer area, and now encompasses Australia,
which has the highest skin cancer rate in the world.
Although the U.S has halted production of ozone-depleting CFCs, they
continue to be produced illegally and smuggled via black-market operations
that span three continents, undermining whatever progress has been
made under the Montreal Protocol. There
is nothing like a heat wave to bring home the reality of global warming.
Remember the killer that hit Europe the summer of 2003 causing 35,000
deaths? The mortalities topped
14,800 in France alone after the thermometer repeatedly registered above
40°C (104°F).
Heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the air over the major cities keep
the nights from cooling down after the day's blistering onslaught. Urban
dwellers,
especially the very old and young, are unable to get any relief
inside their brick apartments and become so heat stressed that they succumb
to extreme dehydration and subsequent cardiovascular failure.
The heat on the Indian subcontinent has reached as high as 122°F so
far this century.
Droughts and wild
fires
Droughts have become an increasing problem as well, causing
widespread crop failures. The total area seriously affected by dry weather
worldwide has
doubled over the last 35 years. As rainfall becomes sparser and
temperatures rise, plants too suffer from heat stress that stunts growth
and prevents the
production of starches for animal and human consumption.
High temperatures prevent proper fertilization and inhibit
photosynthesis, forcing plants into conditions of thermal shock. When that
happens, they wither and die, affecting food production in temperate, sub-tropical,
and tropical zones. For every 1°C rise, plant fertility decreases by 10
percent. Grain
shortfalls have already occurred in the first four years of his
century. As global warming proceeds, the threat of malnutrition and famine
looms ever larger.
Dry conditions also spark wild fires in which thousands of hectares
of grassland and forest have gone up in smoke. Much of the burning is
intentional, but it easily gets out of control in extremely dry weather.
Not only does biomass combustion contribute to the greenhouse effect by
releasing billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere; it has raised tropospheric
ozone levels in parts of Asia and Africa to toxic levels that are dangerous
for both humans and plants.
When concentrated at ground level, ozone is a poison and becomes a
deadly air pollutant. Satellite data indicate that ozone from fires in
Africa travels clear
across the South Atlantic and can be detected in easternmost Brazil.
One phenomenon that is easily observed in our daily lives is the fact
that the seasons have shifted. Springs are coming earlier, autumns are
lasting longer
and winters are milder.
The greenhouse skeptics would like to argue that the extension of
the growing season and less fuel used for winter heating are good things.
In other words, warmer is better, but this is not true for many species.
For every two-degree Celsius rise in temperature, species will have
to migrate at a rate of two miles per year. Some are successfully changing
their range
and others are not, putting Earth's biodiversity at risk. A Spanish
butterfly has recently appeared in Estonia, but scientists who are worried
about the fate
of dozens of Scottish plants and animals are relocating them to cooler
climes in Scandinavia and Iceland.
By warming the planet, we are altering our hydrological cycle. Water
covers 70.8 percent of the Earth's surface. As the temperature of the
oceans
rises, more water evaporates off the surface, increasing cloud formation
and precipitation. Warmer air and seas result in a greater exchange of
energy
and add force to the vertical currents crucial to the development of
tropical cyclones, tornadoes, and thunderstorms. For every degree water
temps rise,
maximum storm winds increase in speed by 5 mph.
Warming can extend the hurricane season by several weeks. All we
need do is look out the window to see that there have been more extremes in
our weather with more intense rain and snowfalls, more floods, tropical storms,
and tornadic activity. The system has been revving up over the past 15
years.
Floods may occur in one region of the world while another area is
plagued with drought. This state of affairs has led to costly property
damage. Munich Re,
the world's largest insurer, reported that five major natural
catastrophes resulted in 75,000 deaths in 2003, seven times as many as in
2002. Total economic losses rose 18 percent.
Planetary needs
before profits!
From the standpoint of the market economy that President Bush touts,
it might be good fiscal policy to exert some damage control in regard to
climate
change. Yet, we are five years into this century and the Bush
administration has not lifted a finger to solve the problem, only to
contribute further to it.
Knowing that our government has been conspiring to keep us ignorant
should make the American people as mad as hell since this is what we are
facing as global warming worsens.
It is clear that the capitalist government and the energy interests
that control it will never do anything to reduce carbon emissions by
launching clean energy projects and employing Earth-friendly, ecological
policies—far from it. They are interested only in continuing the rape and
plunder of the planet's resources to the detriment of Mother Nature. The American people need not sit idly by
as this nightmarish scenario continues to unfold. There is still time to
stabilize atmospheric CO2 levels before carbon emissions cause climate
change to spiral irrevocably out of control.
It's time to wean ourselves from fossil fuels. Working men and women
must take matters into their own hands by getting out into the streets and
demanding nationalization of the energy industry. We must get renewable
energy sources up and running on a massive scale by building more wind
farms and solar parks. All nuclear power plants must be shut down because
of
their inherent, life-threatening dangers.
There need be no loss of jobs if we retrain our coal miners, oil
refinery, and nuclear-power workers to install renewables in their
communities. All industry
must be retooled—and transport in particular—employing clean energy
so that everything we produce is carbon-neutral.
Wind power is abundant, cheap, inexhaustible, and clean. Our Great
Plains could easily supply twice as much electricity as the U.S. now uses.
Over the last 15 years, the cost of generating electricity from wind has
fallen from 38C per kilowatt-hour to 3C. In some locations, it is actually
cheaper than climate-disrupting oil or gas-fired power, according to the
Earth Policy Institute. The superprofits from King Coal and Oil can be used
to fund the switch.
Instead of subsidizing and giving enormous tax breaks to corporate
polluters, we can tax them 100 percent to put a stop to their criminal
activities against
humanity and Earth. A massive public-works program should be
launched to employ the unemployed and clean up our soil, air, and water.
We must stop squandering precious natural resources by reducing,
reusing, and recycling at the source of production with the goal of Zero
Waste.
In other words, we need a society that puts human and planetary
needs before profits. This is the only way we can save Earth from
ecological collapse and ensure that our descendents have a future.
*In next month’s Socialist Action, the author will look at
political strategies to deal with global warming.
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