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Global
Warming: Earth’s Time Bomb
by Michael G. Livingston / March 2005 issue of Socialist Action
To watch TV news and read the papers in the
United States, you would be pretty much in the dark about the time bomb
ticking away on the planet, a time bomb that threatens humanity with
extinction. The time bomb I am talking about is, of course, global warming.
Scientists are not known as alarmists. In fact,
in graduate school, students in the field are punished with relentless
criticism if they stray too far from the data, or if they reach for
conclusions beyond what the data will support. That is why the scientific
reports that have been published in the last two months should make any
sane person crazy with fear. Let’s examine the new evidence.
As reported on the CNN website on Jan. 24, an
international group headed by Stephen Byers, a close confidant of Tony
Blair, and U.S. Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine released the “Meeting the
Climate Challenge” report. The report, which used the phrase “an ecological
time bomb,” called for redoubled efforts to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
The report was timed to coincide with the meeting
of the G8 industrial nations and was part of Blair’s efforts to pressure
his good buddy George Bush into adopting the Kyoto Protocol. In conjunction
with the release of the report, the English organized a conference to
review the latest research on global warming.
Among the studies presented was one that is to be
published in Nature, the prestigious science journal. The article projected that global
warming will be twice as bad as predicted in the next century. Concentrations of CO2 will rise from 280
ppm (parts per million), the pre-industrial level, to 560 ppm. This will raise global mean temperature
by 11 degrees Celsius, almost 20 degrees Fahrenheit. In the higher
latitudes such as the Arctic Circle, the rise in temperature will be closer
to 20 degrees Celsius (36 degrees Fahrenheit).
This estimate does not take into account the
possible impact due to the release of methane from thawing in the Arctic
tundra. (See the January 2005 issue of Socialist Action for more on this.)
Last year, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere
were measured at 379 ppm. Scientists are not sure when the system will
cross a threshold, a tipping point after which all hell breaks lose, but
they are starting to suspect that 400 ppm is the likely threshold. If that is
the case, we have fewer than 10 years to take forceful action.
An increase in global mean temperature over 1
degree Celsius will cause the melting of the Greenland Icecap. The
Greenland Icecap alone holds enough water to raise global sea level by 20
feet. Visit London, Holland, Florida, New York, and Washington soon. They
will not be there in 40 years, along with much of the rest of the world’s
island and coastal areas.
If you think the news in January was bad (and
indeed it was), the news in February was worse. Research from the Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany’s leading center for the
study of global climate, integrated the findings from existing studies on
food production, water availability, wildlife extinction, and ecosystem
stress to develop a timeline of environmental collapse. They projected that
the impact from global warming will multiply as the global mean temperature
goes from 1 degree Celsius to 2 degrees Celsius and from 2 degrees Celsius
to 3 degrees Celsius.
We are currently over one-half a degree Celsius
over the global mean temperature. At 1 degree, rates of draught and species
extinction start to increase and net GDP starts to decline in hard hit
countries. At 2 degrees, water scarcity increases and 1.5 billion people
experience severe water shortages, the oceans become more acidic, and
flooding starts to increase.
Also at 2 degrees Celsius the U.S. and Europe
experience plagues of pests and severe forest fires. At 3 degrees and above, you have
widespread species extinction in the higher latitudes and in the oceans,
increased temperature and acidic content of the oceans, widespread forest
fires on all parts of the planet, the rapid spread of tropical diseases,
and war for water and food.
At 3 degrees, the report estimates, 5.5 billion
people will experience food shortages and starvation and 3 billion will
experience acute water shortages. Also at 3 degrees Celsius, the report
predicts global economic collapse as measured by a steep decline in per
capita global GDP.
In other news in early February, British
scientists reported data showing that the West Antarctic ice sheet may
break off soon. The West Antarctic self has enough water in it to raise
global sea levels 15 feet. Fifteen
feet plus 20 feet from the Greenland Icecap equals 35 feet—not a pretty
sight for the 90 percent of humanity that lives near costal areas.
In mid-February, researchers at the annual
American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting reported on
deep ocean studies of global warming.
These studies provided researchers with conclusive evidence for
global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr. Tim Barnett, the lead researcher from the
University of California, remarked that “the debate on global warming, at
least for rational people, is over.
And for those who insist that the uncertainties remain too great,
their argument is no longer tenable. We’ve nailed it.” In response, Bill
Holbrook, of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, persisted
with the administration’s line on the issue, stating: “The science of
global climate change is uncertain.”
Changes in the ocean temperatures will increase
draught conditions in the northern hemisphere, which is already
experiencing large-scale drying.
Also in mid-February, researchers at Harvard
reported that global warming will stifle the normal cold fronts that move
down across the U.S. from Canada. These cold fronts bring fresh air to the
Midwest and the Northeast and sweep away harmful pollutants. With the number
of these cold fronts decreasing, pollution will build up dramatically over
the Midwest and the Northeastern United States.
Now you would think that a story about the
possible collapse of our civilization along with massive human caused
“natural” disasters and the possible extinction of our species would be
news in the United States. But no, it is not. What is going on here?
Well, the U.S. media is certainly a big part of
the problem. The corporate-controlled media is reluctant to cover a story
that offends powerful corporate interests, and the administration has taken
global warming off of the political agenda. In Europe there is also
relatively little coverage of global warming, but since a number of
politicians are pressing the issue (chiefly Tony Blair), and the various
Green parties have a political presence in the European Parliament, the
issue does get some coverage. Compared to the U.S. media, the European
media has extensive coverage of global warming.
The U.S. environmental movement is another part
of the problem. Many mainstream environmental groups have refused to take
up global warming as an issue, have been willing to work for minor
incremental changes in U.S. policy, or have been waiting until things got
worse. The role of the U.S. media and the failure of the mainstream
environmental movement are detailed in Ross Gelbspan’s latest book on
global warming, “Boiling Point” (2004), a must read for serious
environmental activists.
But as Gelbspan shows, the main culprits are the
oil, gas, and coal industries, and the politicians of the two main
political parties that are willing to bend over backward for their
capitalist masters. This should come as no surprise. After all, those that
pay the fiddler call the tune.
It does mean that we can not rely on lobbying or
electing friendly Democrats to solve the global warming problem. And we can
not expect the corporations to “heal themselves.” We, the people of this
planet, must solve the problem by building a massive, politically
independent, and democratic social movement on a global scale.
Some ideas about how we can build that movement,
and what the movement’s program will look like, will be the focus of a
future article.
All hyperbole aside, global warming is a time
bomb that is ticking away, and our time is running down.
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