Socialist Action /March 2000
Elections in Iran Reveal Crisis of Islamic Republic
By KAMRAN NAYERI
On Feb. 18, about 70 percent of the eligible voters, 27 million Iranians
16 years of age or older, gave a loose coalition of organizations and individuals
that promised political reforms of the government a decisive majority in
the sixth Islamic Consultative Council (parliament).
The parliament is a "consultative" body in the sense that its
decisions are subject to veto by the Council of Guardians and by the Vally-e
Faghih (the supreme religious leader), neither of whom is elected by voters
or accountable to them.
These elections, like all others under the Islamic Republic rule, are
fundamentally undemocratic for a variety of reasons, including the fact
that only candidates deemed "Islamic" by the Council of Guardians
are allowed to run. No secular parties are allowed to function in Iran.
Even most candidates of a small loyal liberal Islamic opposition group,
the Freedom Movement of Iran, were not allowed to run in the elections.
Overall some 6000 candidates applied to run for 290 seats and some 800
were disqualified. Thus the elections were framed as a contest between two
broadly defined camps within the Islamic Republic regime: "conservatives"
and "reformists."
Since Khomeini consolidated his rule, the predominant group has favored
unquestioned subordination of the state and society to the religious hierarchy,
especially the person of the Vally-e Faghih. However, this position has
become increasing untenable, as a cleavage has developed between the requirements
of capitalist accumulation and the clerical rule that was used to suppress
the mass movement that in 1979 brought down the Washington-installed dictatorial
regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
Because of the historical weakness of the Iranian bourgeoisie and the
lack of a working-class alternative-and in the face of a crisis of legitimacy
of the Islamic Republic and rising demand for individual and democratic
rights by the broad masses, especially the youth and women-a "reformist"
current has crystallized around Mohammad Khatami, who was swept to presidency
two and half years ago.
As Hossein Valleh, the chief political advisor to President Khatami explained
to Susan Sachs of The New York Times, the reformists take their "distance
from revolutionary totalitarianism and lawless order." They aim to
control extra-legal institutions, including the moral police, cleric court,
and the semi-fascist groups called Ansar-e Hezbollah. Many Iranians, both
ordinary citizens and political opponents of the regime, even liberal clerics
themselves, have been victims of these groups.
The reformists do not intend to challenge the Islamic Republic but to
save it by adapting its institutions to the requirement of bourgeois society,
where the reformists believe the future of the country belongs. "The
Islamic Republic will remain, but its content will change broadly,"
Valleh emphasized.
The "Coalition of the Imam and Leader's Line" (a reference
to Khomeini and Khamenei), representing conservative groups who control
the ideological and oppressive apparatus of the regime and wield veto power
over policy, had become so isolated that it failed to mount a serious election
campaign. Its various component organizations adopted election names to
portray them as nationalists or liberals. Many of their candidates outside
of Tehran preferred to register as "independents."
The bulk of the conservative incumbents failed to get re-elected, and
those involved in political lynching of their reformist opponents particularly
did poorly. Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the most influential leaders of the
Islamic Republic, a former speaker of the parliament, and a two-term president,
was the only non-reformist candidate elected from Tehran-with only 25.6
percent of the vote. A 25 percent minimum vote is necessary to get elected.
Only two months earlier, Rafsanjani was considered as a potential compromise
candidate for the speaker of the parliament. And the conservatives and one
group of reformers had actually endorsed his candidacy. However, in recent
weeks he had begun to attack the left flank of the reformist coalition and
became the object of students scorn.
The vote for reform candidates was a protest vote against those closely
aligned with the repressive policies of the regime. It was also a vote to
reward those who are perceived to stand up to such policies. The top three
vote-catchers in Tehran were Mohammad Reza Khatami, the president's brother;
Jamileh Kadivar, whose brother is an imprisoned reformist cleric; and whose
husband, Ayatollah Mohajerani, is the embattled Minister of Culture; and
Alireza Nouri, whose brother was the likely candidate for the speaker of
the parliament before he was jailed last fall on charges of heresy.
The reformists received a majority of the vote in the urban and rural
areas, in religious centers, and across social classes and groups. The new
assembly will have far fewer clerics and will be 15 to 20 years younger
in age. Of the 290-seat parliament, reformers won 170 seats, fundamentalists
45, and independents 10. Sixty-five seats will be decided in the April run-off.
While the elections did not decide the course of the class struggle in
Iran, they did register the desire of the broad masses for democratic reforms
and government accountability.
The result of the elections has increased popular expectations. After
the results of the elections became known, Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme
Leader, issued a pardon for two students who were tried and jailed for writing
a play that was deemed as insulting to Islam. Thousands of other political
prisoners, including an unknown number of student protesters arrested last
July, remain behind bars.
The reformist leadership is keenly aware of the rising expectations and
has already begun playing down what they can deliver. Mohammad Reza Khatami,
the leader of the Islamic Iran Participation Front-which received the largest
number of seats of any party-promised that their first legislative act would
be to legalize the use of satellite dishes.
But Iranian working people face more important problems. Since the revolution
of 1979, per capita income has dropped by 50 percent, income inequality
has widened after a brief period when it narrowed, investment per worker
has dropped, and official inflation and unemployment stands at 20 percent.
No candidate in the elections addressed these issues. But these issues
affected the election results. The conservative incumbents who made good
on their promise to improve the livelihood of their constituencies were
re-elected. However, the Islamic Republic has proven itself incapable of
dealing with the underlying causes for the current crisis. Iranian working
people have and will use the openings offered by the crisis of the Islamic
Republic to voice their concerns and act in their own behalf.
Western capitals greeted the victory for the reformists. Like their capitalist
counterparts in Iran, they favor a political environment that is more conducive
to trade and investment. The Clinton administration continues to hope for
an opening for U.S. economic interests in Iran, while holding on to its
arrogant stand of dictating its policies to Tehran.
In recent days, the U.S. Congress has raised additional barriers to trade
involving technologies that can be potentially used in a weapons program,
and the United States has used its influence in the World Bank to deny a
loan to Iran.
Socialist Action /March 2000 |