Socialist Action /May 2001
Montenegro Elections Produce Stalemate
in Independence Dispute
By GERRY FOLEY
Opponents of Montenegrin independence won a tactical
victory in the April 22 parliamentary elections in the only remaining member
of the Yugoslav federation other than Serbia.
They won a sufficiently large vote to make it difficult
for the supporters of independence to secede. But they did not achieve any
significant change in the relationship of forces in their favor. In fact,
in the days leading up to the election, the anti-independence coalition,
United For Yugoslavia, had stressed that it only needed to win a third of
the seats to block secession. It got 33 seats out of 77.
The pro-Independence Coalition, Victory for Montenegro,
won 36 seats, and its ally, the Liberal Party, got six, and two Albanian
parties got one seat each. The differences in the votes were correspondingly
narrow. Victory for Montenegro got about 153,000 votes. United For Yugoslavia
got about 148,000. The Liberals got 28,000, and two Albanian parties got
about 8000.
Kosovapress, a news service close to forces in
the former Kosovo Liberation Army, pointed out that the districts dominated
by Albanians elect five seats, so that most of the Albanians must have voted
directly for Victory for Montenegro. In any case, the Albanian parties are
allies of the independence forces.
One of the main arguments of the anti-independence
forces was that independence for Montenegro would encourage the Albanians
to demand more independence for themselves in Montenegro and Macedonia,
as well as in Kosovo itself. In fact, Kosovapress has consistently seen
Montenegrin independence as favorable to the Albanian cause.
United For Yugoslavia consists mainly of Milosevic's
former allies, who went over to an alliance with the new government of Serbia
after the October uprising in Belgrade. So, it is not surprising that the
Albanians see it as a Serbian chauvinist party.
However, it is clear that the Montenegran population
is very divided in its national orientation. In the 19th century, the Montenegrin
leaders played a key role in the rise of the Serbian nationalist movement
and in building the new Serbian nation.
Socially, however, Montenegrins have been different
from the Serbs of Serbia, in the sense that their society remained tribal
until relatively late. In that regard they have been more like Albanians.
There has always been a substantial but minority
Montenegrin nationalist current. The recent demand for Montenegrin independence,
however, is a result of the defeats of the Great Serbian chauvinist forces
in the post-Yugoslav wars and the rise of opposition to the the regime of
Slobodan Milosevic.
The present president of Montenegro, Milan Djukanovic,
is a former henchman of Milosevic, who broke with the Serbian strongman
when it became clear that he was on a losing course.
Djukanovic defeated Milosevic's candidate in Montenegran
presidential elections some years ago, winning the first major victory for
the liberal opposition. After that Montenegro became the refuge and bulwark
of the liberal opposition to Milosevic, gaining special aid from the Western
governments as a reward. Djukanovic recently introduced the German mark
as the official currency of the country, breaking the monetary union with
Serbia.
However, now with Milosevic out of power and a
liberal opposition government in power in Belgrade, Western interest in
a special relationship with Montenegro has been declining fast. The main
prize now is influence over the new Serbian government.
So, the Western governments, particularly the European
ones, have become vociferous opponents of Montenegrin independence.
This opposition by the imperialist governments
to Montenegrin independence is now being used by the Yugoslav press that
is trying to play the same role for the new government as it did for the
ousted one as a stick to beat the advocates of independence (and of course
the Albanians).
Thus, Politika, formerly the mouthpiece
of Milosevic, quoted with approval Richard Boucher, American undersecretary
of state: "We have always considered that a democratic Montenegro in
a reformed democratic Yugoslavia is the best for this region" (April
25, 2001).
The same Belgrade press that under Milosevic kept
up a constant barrage of stories claiming that the United States and the
West were in league with "Albanian terrorists," now plays up statements
by Western representatives reminding the Albanians that Kosovo is and will
remain part of Yugoslavia.
What effect this is having on the Albanians is
not obvious. As always, they are the underdogs in the Balkans and can be
expected to be careful about openly opposing both the imperialists and their
Serbian protegés. But at some point, they will have to react.
Whether Djukanovic will react to the imperialist
pressures is far less certain. He does not have any fundamental difference
with imperialism, but seems merely to be following the momentum of the course
he adopted against Milosevic, from which it is difficult for him to disengage.
In fact, Djukanovic went quite far in his opposition
to Serbian chauvinism, apologizing to the Bosnians and Croats for the participation
of Montenegrins in Milosevic's wars against them.
The perspective of an independent Montenegro seems
to be receding. But the debate about the role and heritage of Serbian chauvinism
and how to achieve a genuinely democratic solution for the Balkans is just
getting started at the mass level. Hopefully, the present stalemate in Montenegro
may promote a deepening of the discussion.
The fact that the Montenegrin vote was so divided
is an indication that it is not going to be easy for the imperialists to
get the peoples who suffered from the rule of Milosevic, once their protege,
to accept the rule today of their supposedly sanitized Serbian government.
Socialist Action /May 2001 |