Socialist Action /September 2002
Civil War Looms in Venezuela
The renewal of the bourgeois offensive to overthrow the populist government
of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has become so obvious that The New
York Times has had to take note. In the Aug. 17 issue, reporter Juan
Forero wrote from Caracas that the country was deeply polarized.
Forero quoted an opposition spokesman who anticipated "civil war"
and a Bush administration official who predicted that if the present course
of events continued "there is a very good chance that Venezuela will
blow again."
The New York Times noted that Chavez had made important concessions
to the pro-imperialist bourgeois opposition: "Mr. Chavez soon took
some steps that were welcomed by the business class. He appointed a new
economic team, replaced the president of the state-owned oil company who
was seen as his crony, and pledged that the National Assembly would reconsider
several economic laws opposed by entrepreneurs." But this did not satisfy
the bourgeois opposition.
About the same time, it became clear that Chavez's attempt to use the
judicial machinery of the bourgeois state to defend his government had failed.
The Venezuelan Supreme Court dropped the prosecution of the military chiefs
involved in the April coup d'etat.
Chavez responded angrily, telling a crowd of his supporters in the city
of Cumana, in the state of Sucre, that the court had destroyed its authority.
But in Caracas he told supporters that the court's decision was "absurd
but we have to swallow the way you swallow fish bones." He did not
seem to think that you can choke to death on fish bones.
Le Monde's correspondent noted that, ironically, most of the Supreme
Court judges had been nominated by Chavez's former minister of the interior,
Luis Miquelena, an ex-Communist reputed to be Chavez's left-wing "evil
genius."
A dispatch in the Mexico City daily La Jornada (Aug. 22) reported
complaints by Chavez government officials that the opposition was armed
and training its supporters under the auspices of local governments that
it controls. At a press conference, they presented a video showing 20 armed
men being trained on a ranch belonging to the mayor of a town in the state
of Carabobo.
It should be completely clear to the Chavez government that the ruling
rich in Venezuela are preparing for war, and that when they launch their
assault they will be backed by their big brother, U.S. imperialism.
Neither the local bourgeoisie nor the imperialists are prepared to allow
any margins for populist experiments. The region is too unstable, and too
important, because of its oil resources among other things, for the U.S.
rulers.
There is a major guerrilla insurgency in Colombia, and there have been
several mass upsurges in recent years in Ecuador, the third country of the
region. In this context of class polarization, giving concessions to the
ruling class can only be seen as a sign of weakness, both to Chavez's friends
and his enemies.
Unless Chavez also prepares for war, his government will be either gutted
or overthrown. And the only way that he can prepare for war effectively
is to attack the institutions of the bourgeois state itself-the courts,
police, military, and media. He needs to organize and arm the masses who
look to him for leadership. But so far, he has only talked about revolution,
not organized one. Now he may not have much time left.
It is unlikely in fact that a populist politician like Chavez can take
such revolutionary measures, even for the sake of survival. But the masses
that look to him seem to be ready to fight. There have been massive mobilizations
defending the government against its right-wing assailants. Hopefully,
they will find a new leadership capable leading them to victory in the open
class war that now seems inevitable. - G.F.
Socialist Action /September 2002 |