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In Honduras the Nov. 29 election
is finished, as is the Dec. 2 congressional vote to decide whether or
not to restore the ousted, democratically-elected President Manuel
“Mel” Zelaya.
In
the election, Porfirio Lobo of the
conservative National Party (one of the two traditionally dominant
parties of Honduras) won the most votes by all
counts. However, controversy has emerged regarding the percentage
of voters that abstained from voting.
Figures
from the coup-installed regime and correspondingly friendly press put
the figure at 30-40%. But the National Resistance Front (the primary
coordinating body of demonstrations and strikes against the coup, which
had led the call for a boycott) and more liberal press have put the
abstention figure at 60-70%. At that rate, abstentionism
in this election would eclipse all past elections held since the
democratic transition in the early 1980s and signal a victory for those
that called for an electoral boycott.
The
day after the election the National Resistance Front organized an
automobile caravan through the capital of Tegucigalpa to celebrate the victory of
the electoral boycott. Meanwhile, the de facto government,
president-elect Lobo, and the U.S. government all claimed the
election was a success.
The
present course of the Honduran ruling elite and the U.S. government had become clear
following the signing of the Oct. 30 “Tegucigalpa-San Jose Agreement.” In
that accord—signed by both ousted President Zelaya
and de facto government President Micheletti—both
sides had agreed to abide by a decision of the Honduran congress on the
matter of Zelaya’s reinstatement. While
it was not written in the agreement explicitly, Zelaya
was led to believe that the vote would be taken very soon thereafter
and that he would be reinstalled. In return for this, the deal seemed
to be, Zelaya would support the electoral
process of Nov. 29 (in which neither he nor Micheletti
were eligible to run).
But
very soon after the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Agreement had been signed, a
representative of the Obama administration
stated that the U.S. government would recognize
the victor of the elections whether or not Zelaya
were restored. This immediately destroyed any chance that the Honduran
congress would act quickly on the matter, despite repeated demands from
Zelaya and many Latin American governments
that the vote on Zelaya’s restoration be
held.
The
Obama administration and the coup government
went to great lengths to portray the elections as legitimate,
essentially instructing other countries that they had no real choice in
the matter. The
New York Times reported on one exchange at
a meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS), which was very
telling: The Paraguayan ambassador to the OAS said, “Paraguay is not
only not going to accept the outcome of the elections, it will not even
accept that the elections are held. These elections for us simply will
not exist.” The Brazilian ambassador to the OAS remarked that the
situation was like a “badly written soap opera, with sinister
characters played by the de facto regime, which history will judge.”
But
the American ambassador struck a much different note. “I’ve heard many
in this room say that they will not recognize the elections in Honduras,” he said to the group.
“I’m not trying to be a wiseguy, but what
does that mean? What does that mean in the real world, not in the world
of magical realism?” The American ambassador went on to note that they
would eventually have to accept the elections as legitimate.
As
it stands now the countries that had said they would not recognize the
victor have stood by their word, including Latin American “powerhouses”
Brazil and Argentina. Meanwhile, a small
handful of conservative regimes (Colombia, Costa Rica, Peru, and Panama) have recognized the
elections along with the U.S.
Amidst
the electoral dispute, the Honduran congress convened on Dec. 2 and
voted 111-14 not to reinstate Zelaya. Yet Zelaya had already stated he would not accept
reinstatement only to serve out a little more than a month left of his
term (something he felt would only legitimize the coup).
The
resistance in Honduras now faces one of its most
difficult tests yet. The U.S. government will be leaning hard on
countries around the world to recognize the new government, portraying
it as the only path forward out of this crisis.
Meanwhile, the right wing in Honduras will be consolidating the
gains they have made since the coup.
The
resistance includes a chunk of Zelaya’s
Liberal Party (which essentially split over support for the coup),
union organizations, campesino organizations,
leftists, and popular forces that were inspired to political action for
the first time by the coup. The way forward will depend greatly on the
strength and vision of the resistance.
It
was the resistance that truly forced the Tegucigalpa-San Jose
Agreement, as hollow as it was, by creating a political climate in
which the United States had to at least pretend to
be anti-coup. The resistance, through its many demonstrations and
strikes, made it impossible for regional leaders and mainstream press
to gloss over the coup—despite claims by the Honduran Supreme Court,
Honduran Congress, and Honduran military that the coup was a perfectly
legal event.
The
resistance is still organized, and it can still count on support from
huge sectors of the oppressed in Honduran society (the second
poorest country in Central America). One of its most prominent
demands has been the call for a Constituent Assembly, a body that could
rewrite the Honduran constitution and hopefully break the right-wing
stranglehold on Honduran society. That demand still holds popular
support, but it is quite certain that the Honduran oligarchy will do
everything they can to stop such an assembly from being held.
The
forces aligned against the Honduran people are very powerful, but the
masses have shown a higher level of political consciousness and
activism then many thought possible in a country where the left has
historically been severely repressed. Although it will not be easy,
with a high level of organization and an unswerving will to fight, the
masses can still achieve victory against the Honduran oligarchy
and its allies.
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