|
TORONTO—The world is on the brink of runaway global
warming. Devastating consequences can be avoided only if massive cuts in carbon
dioxide (CO2) and methane emissions are started immediately.
James Hansen, head of NASA’s Godard
Institute of Space Studies, was one of the first to sound the alarm.
Recently, he defied efforts by White House appointees to NASA to force
him to delete postings on his website (www.columbia.edu/-jeh)
that contradict positions taken by U.S. President George W. Bush.
Hansen’s central concern is the melting
of polar ice caps, which is occurring far faster than predicted. To
prevent a catastrophic rise in sea levels, increases in global
temperatures must be no more than 1 degree Celsius. Hansen points out
that in the warmest periods during the past 400,000 years, temperatures
were about 1C warmer than now, and in a couple of cases seas were five
metres higher.
If today’s rate of increase were to
continue, temperatures would be 2.8C higher by the end of this century.
The last time the Earth was that warm, 3 million years ago, seas rose 25
metres above previous levels. If that were to happen now, Hansen says,
the U.S. “would lose most East Coast cities ... [and] practically the
whole state of Florida. ... China would have 250 million displaced
persons.”
To prevent temperatures rising beyond 1C,
Hansen says that global emissions of CO2 must be capped within 10 years,
and then cut a further 60 to 80 per cent by 2050. He also insists that
human-caused methane emissions, like those released in oil and gas
operations, should be cut immediately by 30 per cent. Since methane is 21
times more potent as a greenhouse gas, limiting its emissions would be a
fast start towards meeting his targets.
The greatest fear is that global warming
will rise so high that permafrost will melt and release even more
methane. This is what caused intense global warming 58 million years
ago—which resulted in mass extinctions, says Hansen.
Many of Hansen’s observations are based
on data from the U.S. National Ice Core Laboratory, where scientists
examined cores drilled in Antarctica. Their data shows there is a regular
swing between warm and cold periods over the past 420,000 years.
What caused the concentration of
greenhouse gases to drop and the Earth to cool in the past? According to
Hansen, it was primarily the Earth’s orbital variations. The planet moves
from a circular to an elliptical orbit about every 92,000 years. The tilt
of its axis changes by about two degrees on a 40,000-year time scale; and
its closeness to the sun varies over about 23,000 years. This does not
affect the total radiation received from the sun, but it does change the
angle. The northern hemisphere receives less heat, and less heat means
lower CO2 and methane emissions, and a lower greenhouse effect.
That means never again will there be an
ice age. Unless humans become extinct, human-made greenhouse gases will
offset cooling from orbital variations. Humans now control global
climate. Unfortunately, only a tiny minority, a rapacious ruling class of
humanity, controls the global economic system that is wrecking havoc with
the environment and threatens the future of humanity on this planet.
North America and the emerging Asian
economies, especially China, are responsible for the bulk of the annual
2.1 per cent increase in emissions. And the rate of emissions is rising.
The good news is that, according to Hansen, and a
report by Canada’s National Round Table on the Environment and the
Economy (NRTEE) and ICF Consulting International of Toronto, all the
tools needed to achieve the cuts in Canada and the U.S. are available now.
The report’s list ranges from upgrading homes, to improving fuel
efficiency for motor vehicles, to capturing carbon dioxide and storing it.
Unfortunately, the report does not
suggest conscripting corporate profits, especially those of the oil giants,
for investment in developing and implementing green energy technologies.
And with Ottawa not enforcing the Kyoto Protocol (and Washington
disavowing it altogether), and given the absence of incentives to invest
in projects in China and India that reduce emissions, the rapid descent
to disaster continues unabated.
The old aphorism, ‘capitalism fouls
things up’, is an outdated understatement. Today’s verdict must be:
Capitalism is destroying the world. Only socialism—that is, public
ownership of industry under workers’ democratic control—can possibly save
it.
|
