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TORONTO—The
world is on the brink of runaway global warming. Devastating
consequences can be avoided only if massive cuts in carbon dioxide
(CO2) and methane emissions are started immediately.
James Hansen, head of NASA’s Godard Institute of Space Studies, was one of the
first to sound the alarm. Recently, he defied efforts by White House
appointees to NASA to force him to delete postings on his website (www.columbia.edu/-jeh) that
contradict positions taken by U.S. President George W. Bush.
Hansen’s central concern is the
melting of polar ice caps, which is occurring far faster than predicted.
To prevent a catastrophic rise in sea levels, increases in global
temperatures must be no more than 1 degree Celsius. Hansen points out
that in the warmest periods during the past 400,000 years, temperatures
were about 1C warmer than now, and in a couple of cases seas were five metres higher.
If today’s rate of increase were
to continue, temperatures would be 2.8C higher by the end of this
century. The last time the Earth was that warm, 3 million years ago,
seas rose 25 metres above previous levels. If
that were to happen now, Hansen says, the U.S.
“would lose most East Coast cities ... [and] practically the whole
state of Florida.
... China
would have 250 million displaced persons.”
To prevent temperatures rising
beyond 1C, Hansen says that global emissions of CO2 must be capped
within 10 years, and then cut a further 60 to 80 per cent by 2050. He
also insists that human-caused methane emissions, like those released
in oil and gas operations, should be cut immediately by 30 per cent.
Since methane is 21 times more potent as a greenhouse gas, limiting its
emissions would be a fast start towards meeting his targets.
The greatest fear is that global
warming will rise so high that permafrost will melt and release even
more methane. This is what caused intense global warming 58 million
years ago—which resulted in mass extinctions, says Hansen.
Many of Hansen’s observations
are based on data from the U.S. National Ice Core Laboratory, where
scientists examined cores drilled in Antarctica.
Their data shows there is a regular swing between warm and cold periods
over the past 420,000 years.
What caused the concentration of
greenhouse gases to drop and the Earth to cool in the past? According
to Hansen, it was primarily the Earth’s orbital variations. The planet
moves from a circular to an elliptical orbit about every 92,000 years.
The tilt of its axis changes by about two degrees on a 40,000-year time
scale; and its closeness to the sun varies over about 23,000 years.
This does not affect the total radiation received from the sun, but it
does change the angle. The northern hemisphere receives less heat, and
less heat means lower CO2 and methane emissions, and a lower greenhouse
effect.
That means never again will
there be an ice age. Unless humans become extinct, human-made
greenhouse gases will offset cooling from orbital variations. Humans
now control global climate. Unfortunately, only a tiny minority, a
rapacious ruling class of humanity, controls the global economic system
that is wrecking havoc with the environment and threatens the future of
humanity on this planet.
North America
and the emerging Asian economies, especially China,
are responsible for the bulk of the annual 2.1 per cent increase in
emissions. And the rate of emissions is rising.
The good news is that, according to Hansen,
and a report by Canada’s
National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) and ICF
Consulting International of Toronto, all the tools needed to achieve
the cuts in Canada
and the U.S.
are available now. The report’s list ranges from upgrading homes, to
improving fuel efficiency for motor vehicles, to capturing carbon
dioxide and storing it.
Unfortunately, the report does
not suggest conscripting corporate profits, especially those of the oil
giants, for investment in developing and implementing green energy
technologies. And with Ottawa
not enforcing the Kyoto Protocol (and Washington disavowing it
altogether), and given the absence of incentives to invest in projects
in China
and India
that reduce emissions, the rapid descent to disaster continues unabated.
The old aphorism, ‘capitalism
fouls things up’, is an outdated understatement. Today’s verdict
must be: Capitalism is destroying the world. Only socialism—that is,
public ownership of industry under workers’ democratic control—can
possibly save it.
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